Horizon Handout December 2023

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • Germany is in troubled waters. In addition to the weak economy, the government is in crisis.
  • The U.S. economy is cooling down, but the landing should be fairly soft. The labour market is still quite stable.
  • The disinflationary process is continuing. The pressure on central banks to act is decreasing significantly.


  • Global equity markets rally across the board. Technicals and Goldilocks hopes supported the rally. Valuations have risen recently.
  • Earnings estimates for 2024 remain very optimistic. Strong consensus harbours risks.
  • Share buyback programmes and systematic strategies offer opportunities for the rally to continue until the end of the year.


  • Expectations of interest rate cuts prevail. Rating surprises from Moody's support peripheral bonds.
  • Spreads in the IG segment remain attractive. Despite good performance, HY inflows almost unchanged over the year.
  • Declining interest rate volatility in US government bonds and falling commodity prices support emerging market bonds

Alternative investments

  • Oil trapped in the supply-demand structure. OPEC meeting should provide a positive catalyst.
  • Gold price close to all-time high. Further price potential limited without Fed turnaround after strong rally.
  • Industrial metals with high heterogeneity. Green demand is (already) providing long-term support.


  • In general, the weak economy continues to weigh on the euro exchange rate. Nevertheless, the euro has recently recovered.
  • The US dollar remains in demand as a safe haven, but has weakened somewhat following favourable inflation data.
  • The Swiss franc remains in demand in the tense geopolitical environment. EUR/CHF remains below parity.