Horizon Handout February 2023

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • The worst-case scenarios seem to have been averted. Financial markets are already looking towards recovery.
  • Inflation rates seem to have peaked. Nevertheless, inflation remains far above central bank targets.
  • The European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve are tightening monetary policy further, but with smaller steps


  • Strong start to the year thanks to increasing economic optimism and significantly falling inflation. China opening helped.
  • With the decline in inflation, markets are likely to focus more on economic and especially earnings developments.
  • We are neutrally positioned with a focus on profitable companies. Commodity price profiteers also allocated.


  • Recovery rally in safe government bonds. US and German inverted yield curve points to recession.
  • Corporate bonds as a real alternative to equities due to attractive yields. Local currency bonds preferred in EM.
  • We are maintaining the reduced underweight in bonds but are increasingly considering a further reduction.

Alternative investments / commodities

  • Oil has a volatile start to the year. Catch-up effects in China offer opportunities. SPR purchases and OPEC limit downside risks.
  • Positive momentum drives gold price. With real yields unchanged, the air is slowly getting thin from a fundamental perspective.
  • Industrial metals with strong start to the year. Supply remains tight in the short and medium term. Rally temporarily overheated.


  • The euro continues to benefit from the improved market sentiment and economic outlook.
  • The higher risk appetite is weighing on the US dollar. Nevertheless, the US currency remains highly valued.
  • Against the Swiss franc, the euro has reached parity again. Further upward potential is limited.