- Inflationary pressures remain high and Europe is mired in the energy crisis. Europe ends up in recession.
- The European Central Bank and the US Fed continue to tighten monetary policy, but with somewhat smaller steps.
- Corporate sentiment seems to have bottomed out. Meanwhile, the focus is increasingly on the brighter spring.
- Earnings expectations are likely to be further reduced in line with worsening economic data.
- There should be no significant valuation expansion in 2023. Europe and Asia are relatively more attractive.
- Drawdowns are also likely in 2023. However, the outlook towards 2024 holds limited upside potential.
- Yield jumps on safe government bonds. US government bonds at higher current yields with a clear advantage.
- Corporate bonds again with attractive yields. Local currency bonds preferred in the emerging market segment.
- We are underweight bonds due to government bonds but are increasingly overweight in credit risk.
Alternative investments / commodities
- China's move away from 0-covid policy stabilises oil. US reserves turn from supply support to demand driver.
- Gold benefits from weak dollar. Diversification effect limited. Relative attractiveness vis-à-vis bonds reduced.
- Industrial metals robust despite recession worries. Inventories low, liquidity thin. Supercycle remains intact.
- The euro is benefiting from improved market sentiment and a somewhat friendlier economic outlook.
- The higher risk appetite has weakened the US dollar, allowing the euro to move up from parity.
- The upward trend for the euro should continue if the winter is weathered without major setbacks.