- Inflationary pressures remain high and an energy crisis looms, at least in Germany. Consumers are worried.
- Uncertainty is spreading to the corporate sector. Despite good fundamentals, recession now looms.
- Fighting inflation: central banks must tighten monetary policy even if the economy is slowing down.
- Optimistic earnings expectations are likely to be reduced in line with worsening economic data.
- Valuation ratios have fallen across the board. Beneath the surface, there are already favourable equity market segments.
- Volatility is likely to increase further in Q3. We are betting on a barbell strategy of quality growth and commodity-heavy equities.
- Yields on safe government bonds were recently under pressure from increasing recession fears. Flattening of the yield curve.
- Risk premiums for corporate bonds continue their upward trend. EM high-yield bonds increasingly attractive.
- We are underweight bonds and remain cautiously positioned on credit risk. Short duration.
- Oil swings between recession worries, China lockdowns and the EU oil embargo. Supply remains tight and prices high.
- Gold dominated by restrictive central banks. Potential is limited despite high inflation and risk of recession.
- Base metals are temporarily weaker due to China’s lockdowns. Long-term upward trend is fully intact.
- Hesitant ECB: Despite the announced interest rate turnaround, the euro remains weak. Other central banks are simply faster.
- The exchange rate had again fallen to below 1.04 US dollars per euro. A more substantial recovery is difficult.
- The biggest surprise was the SNB's interest rate hike. The Swiss franc thus strengthened once again.