- The economy in the Eurozone is picking up. The inflation rate is still moderate at 2%.
- Inflation is currently in the spotlight in the US. Both overall and core inflation are rising strongly.
- Despite the rising inflation rates, central banks continue to maintain their support. Fiscal policy is also providing support.
- Strong Q2 reporting season, analysts have increased earnings estimates for all regions and, in particular, Europe.
- Equities remain expensively valued compared to its own history, especially in the US. However, there is no attractive alternative.
- We expect a volatile sideways movement over the summer with little upside potential at index level.
- Safe government bonds have recently seen falling yields as well as flatter yield curves.
- Euro corporate bonds: avoid duration risk, current yield more attractive at the short end.
- In emerging markets, we favour high-yield government bonds and the local currency segment.
Alternative investments / commodities
- OPEC production expansion is only a burden in the short term, focus should return to supply shortages in the medium term.
- Short-term decoupling of the gold price from real interest rates, persistent ETF outflows prevented a strong recovery.
- Declining economic upswing momentum caused a short-lived correction in the industrial metals in July.
- The US dollar is strong - at least temporarily - and the euro lacks momentum. The ECB is also contributing to this
- The British pound continues its sideways trend after the bearish first quarter.
- The euro's jump from 1.08 to 1.11 in the first quarter is a thing of the past - the franc has fought its way back