China easing offers opportunities

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly


  • Two big shocks: Putin's invasion of Ukraine weighs on the economy, Chinese lockdowns remain a risk.
  • Eurozone remains largely in stagflation until autumn. US economy loses momentum.
  • A recession in Europe and the US is possible but not likely. The US Fed does not want a recession.


  • Equities saw a slight recovery rally from mid-May onwards due to rebalancing flows and share buyback programmes.
  • After a further decline in volatility, this should rise in Q3. Interest rate policy and Q2 reporting season are in investor focus.
  • We remain neutral on equity exposure. Potential in China’s easing COVID-19 policy and Latin America.


  • Global bond markets burdened by rising interest rates and inflation concerns. Interest rate level increasingly attractive.
  • Corporate bonds and emerging market bonds weighed down by China, Russia and recession fears.
  • We underweight bonds and favour emerging market bonds. Duration: neutral.


  • Gold suffered from real interest rate hikes. With the Fed continuing to fight inflation, upside potential remains limited.
  • US travel season supports oil demand. Supply remains tight and the oil market situation remains tense.
  • Industrial metals suffered from China worries. China’s easing and recovery in the automotive sector should support.


  • Prospect of an imminent interest rate turnaround in the eurozone strengthens the euro. EUR/USD low probably reached in May.
  • The US dollar continues to benefit from the geopolitical situation. However, there are doubts about the Fed's tightening course.
  • The British currency is fluctuating around the 0.85 pound per euro mark and is thus at the level we expected.