Increased risks of setbacks on the stock markets

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly

At a glance


  • US economy: soft landing instead of mini-recession, new upswing in the course of 2024.
  • Europe: Consumer purchasing power recovers, but industry and residential construction decline. Economy weak for now.
  • Inflation declining, interest rate peak (almost) reached. Fed cuts rates from spring 2024, ECB keeps rates stable in 2024.


  • Equity markets recovered at the end of the month after weakness until mid-August. Valuations still elevated.
  • Ambitious earnings expectations, seasonality and late effects of tight interest rate policy make markets vulnerable.
  • We maintain the moderate equity underweight and see an increased risk of a setback by the end of the year.


  • Safe government bond yields rise in the face of higher long-term real interest rates and a flood of new issues.
  • High interest rate volatility and uncertain Fed interest rate policy continue to argue for duration near neutral.
  • IG corporate bonds clearly more attractive than high-yield bonds. EM local currency bonds still preferred.


  • Gold currently lacklustre with strong dollar and high real interest rates. Only a turnaround by central banks offers potential.
  • Oil with recovery due to more pronounced supply deficit. Catalysts increasingly materialised after the strong rally.
  • Base metals remain cyclically sensitive but benefit from low inventories and strong "green" demand.


  • The US dollar has the upper hand thanks to the monetary policy outlook, EUR/USD falls back towards 1.07.
  • EUR/GBP remains stable at 0.86 pounds per euro. Bank of England approaches interest rate summit.
  • Nothing new with the Swiss franc: it remains very strong and continues to hold the euro well below parity at around 0.96.