Most important assessments at a glance
Economics
- Pandemic subsides in the western world; after the US and the UK, the EU is also making progress on vaccination
- Strong fiscal stimulus drives growth; buoyant world trade supports economic activity in Europe
- Inflation is on the rise; special factors are exaggerating the trend – central banks will not take countermeasures before 2022
Equities
- Seasonally strong April also lived up to its reputation thanks to good corporate figures and significant vaccination progress
- We expect more volatile markets in the coming months, but believe the downside potential for equities is limited
- We are continuing to position ourselves in a balanced way into the summer with only a slight overweight in equities
Bonds
- Pressure on yields in Europe increases due to positive economic outlook and rising inflation expectations
- Falling spreads on EUR corporate bonds helped yields rise. Corporate bonds favoured
- We underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes; duration short
Commodities
- The gold price has stabilised recently, despite continued investment outflows. Jewellery demand supported
- Crude oil has risen significantly in recent weeks now that the economic opening in the West is gaining momentum
- Industrial metals are supported cyclically and above all structurally. Possible super cycle ahead
Currencies
- EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.20 mark. Our EUR outlook for the rest of the year remains positive
- GBP with moderate correction after very strong first quarter. However, economic prospects remain good
- CHF gains slightly again. The EUR/CHF exchange rate nevertheless remains close to the 1.10 mark
