Limited upside potential in the medium term

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly

At a glance


  • Putin's invasion of Ukraine is weighing on the economy. Europe is hit much harder than the US.
  • In the course of the year, the economy should recover from the shock and growth return.
  • Potential commodity embargo (or Russian supply freeze) as a risk factor especially for German economy.


  • After the war-related sell-off with high volatility, the recovery came recently. April seasonality is good for equities.
  • Medium-term upside limited is amid inflation and downturn concerns. Regions with commodity exposure are ahead.
  • We are positioning ourselves with only a small overweight in equities and remain tactically flexible.


  • Yields on safe government bonds still on an upward trend. Yet yield levels becoming increasingly attractive in the long term.
  • No further escalation in Putin's war makes for tighter risk premiums. We remain cautious on credit for the time being.
  • We are underweight bonds and prefer emerging market bonds. Duration: short.


  • Gold defies more restrictive central bank policy. Growth slowdown and inflation support.
  • Supply shortage pushes the oil price up. Prices are likely to fall in the short term only if demand collapses.
  • War and decarbonisation support industrial metals. The wave of infection in China is only a temporary demand dampener.


  • The first war shock is behind us on the forex market. The currencies of the safe investment countries do not gain further.
  • Difficult conditions for the euro. Regional proximity to the Ukraine-Russia war is also a relative burden factor in the longer term.
  • The yen is under pressure. Rising interest rate differential burdens. Could highly indebted Japan cope with higher interest rates?