Horizon Handout July 2023

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • Germany and the Eurozone now with technical winter recession after downward revisions of GDP data.
  • Inflation falls more than expected in the eurozone and the US. In the UK, inflation remains very stubborn.
  • ECB, BoE and Fed will tighten further. The wording of the ECB and Fed has been surprisingly hawkish lately.


  • Profit growth expectations close to zero are probably realistic for 2023. 2024 should be better.
  • The threat of liquidity withdrawal should cap valuations in the coming months.
  • We see an increased risk of a setback in Q3. However, the downside potential is likely to be limited due to positioning.


  • Safe government bonds offer greater earnings opportunities in the US and the UK than in Germany.
  • For European corporate bonds, we prefer short-dated securities from the investment grade segment.
  • For emerging markets, local currency bonds remain our clear favourites. Our bond weighting is close to neutral.


  • Oil price development decoupled from fundamental data. Recovery still pending despite positive developments.
  • Gold has moved sideways in the last month. Fed turnaround needed for sustained upward trend.
  • Industrial metals continue to fall after brief recovery. Inventories low, demand rising due to energy transition.


  • After a temporary setback, the euro can gain again after the central bank meetings.
  • The interest rate decisions by the Fed and the ECB were as expected. However, the outlook was surprisingly hawkish.
  • The Swiss franc remains highly valued. Meanwhile, the inflation rate has almost fallen back to 2%.