Horizon Handout June 2023

Capital Market Outlook of Berenberg Wealth & Asset Management - compact outlook on capital markets, economy, equities, bonds, economics and currencies.


  • The deep economic slump in winter did not materialise. Now the focus is on the recovery.
  • Stubborn inflation: Even if the peak has been passed, it is still too early to sound the all-clear.
  • The ECB, BoE and Fed are likely to tighten a little further. But the last interest rate hikes are not far away.


  • Earnings and price development so far more robust than expected. However, the driver of the rally was a valuation expansion.
  • The first cracks are appearing. Valuations still defy the rise in bond yields. Vulnerability increases.
  • We have increased the equity underweight, as the risk-reward ratio appears unattractive after the rally.


  • Yields on safe government bonds again in a sideways trend without concrete signs of a settlement of the US debt dispute.
  • Spreads of USD financial bonds clearly above annual lows. EM high-yield bonds with noticeable spread widening.
  • We are only slightly underweighted in bonds and plan to gradually increase our positions further.


  • Oil volatile sideways despite demand recovery in China. Systematics with high short position. Upside potential in the medium term.
  • Gold remains an important but "expensive" portfolio component. Sustained rally possible only with Fed turnaround.
  • Gloomy economy weighs on industrial metals. Limited short-term potential, long-term demand boom with energy transition.


  • Interrupted recovery: The euro recently weakened to 1.07 US dollars. However, it should rise again later on.
  • The US Fed must simultaneously ensure price and financial stability and will probably only raise interest rates once more.
  • The Swiss franc remains strong - much to the liking of the Swiss National Bank.