Opportunities and risks balance each other out

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly


  • US: Fed hits the brakes hard on monetary policy - mild US recession in 2023.
  • High prices for natural gas hit Europe hard this winter - recession until spring 2023, recovery afterwards.
  • US inflation peak reached. Euro inflation will continue to rise until the end of 2022. Price pressure decreases from spring 2023.


  • Equities fell to new lows for the year. European and emerging market equities held up better than US equities.
  • Value is again ahead of growth. The Q3 reporting season should provide clarity on margin pressure. Prices reflect many risks.
  • We increased our equity weighting to neutral in the autumn sell-off. Opportunities and risks are already balanced.


  • Inflation concerns and restrictive monetary policy cause massive interest rate volatility. Significant rise in yields across the board.
  • Corporate bonds already attractive over the long term. For emerging market bonds, we prefer local currencies.
  • We maintain our less strong underweight in bonds and position ourselves close to neutral in duration.


  • Gold still burdened by central bank policy and US dollar strength. Sustained upward trend requires a turnaround by the Fed.
  • OPEC cuts exacerbate supply deficit. With mild recession, significant collapse in demand seems unlikely.
  • Industrial metals surprisingly stable recently. End of economic weakness holds recovery potential. Long-term trends intact.


  • The EUR/USD exchange rate has now settled below parity. The energy crisis is weighing on the euro.
  • The British pound experienced some turbulent days and stabilised after a central bank intervention in the bond market.
  • The franc is benefiting from the geopolitical situation, comparatively low inflation and the firm monetary policy.