At a glance
- US: Inflationary pressure easing. Mini recession likely in 2023, soft landing possible. Upswing in 2024.
- Europe: Gas situation easing. Mild recession in winter, new upswing from summer. Inflation slowly declining.
- Central bank interest rate summit in sight. US Fed cuts rates from late autumn, ECB not until 2024.
- Good start to the year thanks to forward guidance and technical buying. European equities and cyclicals outperform.
- China opening and absence of energy crisis offers potential for emerging markets and European equities.
- We maintain neutral positioning on equities as earnings, interest rate and economic risks still exist.
- Recovery rally analogous to equities. 10-year yields have fallen since the start of the year. Euro periphery spreads offer potential.
- Corporate bonds attractive with high yields and solid balance sheets. Local currency bonds preferred in emerging markets.
- Relative attractiveness of bonds over equities has risen markedly due to yield advantage. Duration: neutral.
- Gold recently boosted by technical factors. Limited diversification effect. Potential with Fed pivot.
- Oil with upside potential when China opens. Downside risks limited by SPR purchases and increased production costs.
- Metals surprisingly robust thanks to ongoing supply shortages. Decarbonisation provides long-term tailwind.
- Outlook for the euro continues to brighten. The euro is gaining against the US dollar, also because the dollar is losing attractiveness.
- The pound has calmed down after the political turbulence. Nevertheless, it is falling back against the strengthening euro.
- The Swiss National Bank is counting on a strong franc in its fight against inflation. EUR/CHF remains below parity.