Positive start to the year after a difficult 2022

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights

Published: monthly

At a glance


  • US: Inflationary pressure easing. Mini recession likely in 2023, soft landing possible. Upswing in 2024.
  • Europe: Gas situation easing. Mild recession in winter, new upswing from summer. Inflation slowly declining.
  • Central bank interest rate summit in sight. US Fed cuts rates from late autumn, ECB not until 2024.


  • Good start to the year thanks to forward guidance and technical buying. European equities and cyclicals outperform.
  • China opening and absence of energy crisis offers potential for emerging markets and European equities.
  • We maintain neutral positioning on equities as earnings, interest rate and economic risks still exist.


  • Recovery rally analogous to equities. 10-year yields have fallen since the start of the year. Euro periphery spreads offer potential.
  • Corporate bonds attractive with high yields and solid balance sheets. Local currency bonds preferred in emerging markets.
  • Relative attractiveness of bonds over equities has risen markedly due to yield advantage. Duration: neutral.


  • Gold recently boosted by technical factors. Limited diversification effect. Potential with Fed pivot.
  • Oil with upside potential when China opens. Downside risks limited by SPR purchases and increased production costs.
  • Metals surprisingly robust thanks to ongoing supply shortages. Decarbonisation provides long-term tailwind.


  • Outlook for the euro continues to brighten. The euro is gaining against the US dollar, also because the dollar is losing attractiveness.
  • The pound has calmed down after the political turbulence. Nevertheless, it is falling back against the strengthening euro.
  • The Swiss National Bank is counting on a strong franc in its fight against inflation. EUR/CHF remains below parity.