Tailwind continues for the time being

Economics:

• Pandemic subsides in US and UK, third wave delays Eurozone recovery
• US ahead: rapid progress in vaccination and a strong fiscal stimulus are driving growth
• Inflation is on the rise, special factors are exaggerating the trend – central banks will not take countermeasures before 2022

Equities:

• Markets at all-time highs; tailwinds should continue for now thanks to seasonality, momentum and the reporting season
• Growth stocks ahead of value stocks due to temporary interest rate pause; technology stocks were the winners
• We are maintaining our moderate overweight in equities and a more cyclical orientation; positive outlook for now

Bonds:

• The rise in yields has paused but is likely to pick up speed again in the medium term; government bonds unattractive
• Corporate bonds are still preferred; falling spreads have also helped investors recently
• We underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes; duration short

Commodoties:

• Gold has stabilised above the USD1,700 per ounce mark; rising jewellery demand supports
  
• Crude oil was unable to maintain its positive trend recently, but the demand overhang should provide a new tailwind
• Industrial metals remain well supported cyclically, and above all structurally

Currencies:

• EUR/USD remains below the 1.20 mark; the euro could nevertheless partially recover previous losses
• Sterling benefits from impulse progress and economic reopening prospects; exchange rate potential almost exhausted
• Swiss franc slightly less in demand as a refuge currency; euro remains above the 1.10 mark