Tailwind continues for the time being

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights.

Published: Monthly


  • Pandemic subsides in US and UK, third wave delays Eurozone recovery
  • US ahead: rapid progress in vaccination and a strong fiscal stimulus are driving growth
  • Inflation is on the rise, special factors are exaggerating the trend – central banks will not take countermeasures before 2022


  • Markets at all-time highs; tailwinds should continue for now thanks to seasonality, momentum and the reporting season
  • Growth stocks ahead of value stocks due to temporary interest rate pause; technology stocks were the winners
  • We are maintaining our moderate overweight in equities and a more cyclical orientation; positive outlook for now


  • The rise in yields has paused but is likely to pick up speed again in the medium term; government bonds unattractive
  • Corporate bonds are still preferred; falling spreads have also helped investors recently
  • We underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes; duration short


  • Gold has stabilised above the USD1,700 per ounce mark; rising jewellery demand supports
  • Crude oil was unable to maintain its positive trend recently, but the demand overhang should provide a new tailwind
  • Industrial metals remain well supported cyclically, and above all structurally


  • EUR/USD remains below the 1.20 mark; the euro could nevertheless partially recover previous losses
  • Sterling benefits from impulse progress and economic reopening prospects; exchange rate potential almost exhausted
  • Swiss franc slightly less in demand as a refuge currency; euro remains above the 1.10 mark