Light and Shadow

Concise summary of the assessments and allocation results of the Investment Committee of Berenberg Wealth and Asset Management – Transparent insights.

Published: Monthly

Most important assessments at a glance


  • Pandemic subsides in the western world; after the US and the UK, the EU is also making progress on vaccination
  • Strong fiscal stimulus drives growth; buoyant world trade supports economic activity in Europe
  • Inflation is on the rise; special factors are exaggerating the trend – central banks will not take countermeasures before 2022


  • Seasonally strong April also lived up to its reputation thanks to good corporate figures and significant vaccination progress
  • We expect more volatile markets in the coming months, but believe the downside potential for equities is limited
  • We are continuing to position ourselves in a balanced way into the summer with only a slight overweight in equities


  • Pressure on yields in Europe increases due to positive economic outlook and rising inflation expectations
  • Falling spreads on EUR corporate bonds helped yields rise. Corporate bonds favoured
  • We underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes; duration short


  • The gold price has stabilised recently, despite continued investment outflows. Jewellery demand supported
  • Crude oil has risen significantly in recent weeks now that the economic opening in the West is gaining momentum
  • Industrial metals are supported cyclically and above all structurally. Possible super cycle ahead


  • EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.20 mark. Our EUR outlook for the rest of the year remains positive
  • GBP with moderate correction after very strong first quarter. However, economic prospects remain good
  • CHF gains slightly again. The EUR/CHF exchange rate nevertheless remains close to the 1.10 mark