Light and Shadow

Most important assessments at a glance

Economics

• Pandemic subsides in the western world; after the US and the UK, the EU is also making progress on vaccination
• Strong fiscal stimulus drives growth; buoyant world trade supports economic activity in Europe
• Inflation is on the rise; special factors are exaggerating the trend – central banks will not take countermeasures before 2022

Equities

• Seasonally strong April also lived up to its reputation thanks to good corporate figures and significant vaccination progress
• We expect more volatile markets in the coming months, but believe the downside potential for equities is limited
• We are continuing to position ourselves in a balanced way into the summer with only a slight overweight in equities

Bonds

• Pressure on yields in Europe increases due to positive economic outlook and rising inflation expectations
• Falling spreads on EUR corporate bonds helped yields rise. Corporate bonds favoured
• We underweight bonds and focus on credit risk and off-benchmark themes; duration short

Commodities

• The gold price has stabilised recently, despite continued investment outflows. Jewellery demand supported
• Crude oil has risen significantly in recent weeks now that the economic opening in the West is gaining momentum
• Industrial metals are supported cyclically and above all structurally. Possible super cycle ahead

Currencies

• EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.20 mark. Our EUR outlook for the rest of the year remains positive
• GBP with moderate correction after very strong first quarter. However, economic prospects remain good
• CHF gains slightly again. The EUR/CHF exchange rate nevertheless remains close to the 1.10 mark