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Equity markets in panic mode

The rapid spread of the coronavirus outside China has led to fears of a recession and has recently caused quite a stir in markets. The S&P 500 lost more than 10% in only six days - a record! VIX, which measures the volatility of US equities, experienced its strongest percentage rise ever measured over one week. Many hedge funds and systematic investors were caught on the wrong foot. They were (heavily) overweight in equities and had to massively divest risk positions due to the negative momentum and increasing volatility. These sell-offs are likely to continue this week, albeit with much lower…

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Capital Markets Outlook by Berenberg’s Wealth and Asset Management

Compact outlook on capital markets, the economy, equities, bonds, commodities and currencies. New every month.

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Berenberg grows net profit for the year by 160%

Hamburg. Berenberg closed the year 2019 with net profit for the year from operations of €60.5 million (previous year: €23.3 million). Germany’s oldest privately owned bank has thus surpassed the previous year’s earnings by 160%.

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Industrial metals and crude oil with catch-up potential

The positive trend in equity markets does not seem to be stoppable. The Iran conflict and the coronavirus were quickly priced out again. Both merely led to a small single-digit correction, which was used as a buying opportunity. The equity markets reached new all-time highs. On the corporate side, the Q4 reporting season is proceeding satisfactorily. The technology sector remains the driving force. The Nasdaq 100 has already recorded a return of over 8% since the beginning of the year in US dollars. While equities have more than recovered, crude oil and most base metals are still trading below…

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Clarinettist Roman Gerber receives Berenberg Culture Prize 2020

Berenberg Bank Foundation of 1990 has been supporting young artists for 30 years. The 10,000 euro Berenberg Culture Prize goes to clarinettist Roman Gerber. Violoncellist Anna Olivia Amaya Farias and Dutch pianist Daan Boertien receive scholarships.

 

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No suspicion: Investigations against Hendrik Riehmer dropped

Hamburg. The investigations initiated in March 2019 against Hendrik Riehmer, Managing Partner of Berenberg, were discontinued in accordance with Section 170 (2) of the German Code of Criminal Procedure on the grounds that the accusations were completely unfounded, as announced by the Hamburg public prosecutor's office on 11.02.2020. Riehmer had been wrongly suspected of having passed on insider information.

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The optimism resulting from the trade deal was met by the coronavirus

There seems to be a new “safe haven”, the Nasdaq 100, and no matter what happens in the world, such as trade uncertainty, negative earnings revisions like in 2018, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or the spread of the coronavirus, tech stocks in the US are rising. Supported by loose Fed monetary policy, a US stockminded president, massive stock buyback programs and high earnings growth rates. China-sensitive asset classes such as oil, industrial metals and emerging market equities, on the other hand, have recently lost a lot of ground. The optimism resulting from the trade deal was met…

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Capital Markets Outlook by Berenberg’s Wealth and Asset Management

Compact outlook on capital markets, the economy, equities, bonds, commodities and currencies. New every month.

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Share positioning of institutional investors strongly increased

Middle East tensions? Markets digested this at record speed thanks to the absence of an escalation. Emerging market equities in particular continued to rise, while US stock markets celebrated all-time highs. Since the beginning of the year, all risk asset classes have now been in the black - with the exception of oil. Loose central bank policy worldwide and the Phase 1 deal are supporting this. Now the market is focusing on the Q4 corporate reporting season that has just started. The exciting question remains whether equity markets can meet the optimistic expectations that have already been…

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Almost all asset classes with a positive return in 2019

2019 seemed to be an easy year for financial markets. After all, almost all major asset classes, with the exception of cash, gained. But appearances are deceptive, as there were many reasons for investors to position themselves defensively and thus not to profit fully. For example, political uncertainty reached a record high, especially due to recurring peaks in the trade dispute. In addition, both economic data and corporate earnings were continually disappointing. Nevertheless, markets grew significantly, also thanks to the support of central banks around the world. For the next few weeks,…

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Berenberg’s Rupini Deepa Rajagopalan explains her view on measuring the UN SDGs successfully

Berenberg’s Rupini Deepa Rajagopalan explains her view on measuring the UN SDGs successfully

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Capital Markets Outlook by Berenberg’s Wealth and Asset Management

Compact outlook on capital markets, the economy, equities, bonds, commodities and currencies. New every month.

Read more

Horizon Q1 2020 | The Berenberg Capital Market Outlook

TURN FOR THE BETTER

If the US-China trade dispute does not escalate again, global growth should pick up slightly in 2020. However, political uncertainty will remain high.

LIMITED POTENTIAL

In the event of an economic upturn and a partial settlement in the trade dispute, equities should benefit initially from their relative attractiveness and investor inflows, despite the rally in 2019. Disappointments could emerge later in 2020.

SELECTIVITY AND

TACTICAL POSITIONING

A repeat of the strong performance of nearly all asset classes in 2019 is unlikely. Active management, selectivity and…

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Berenberg Outlook 2020: The cycle continues

Hamburg/Frankfurt. Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer, Chief Strategist and Head of Multi-Asset at Berenberg’s Wealth and Asset Management, has given a cautiously optimistic outlook for the year 2020. Above all else, the high degree of political uncertainty will continue, he says, not least in view of the US presidential elections. Berenberg expects global economic growth to expand slightly in the coming year. Berenberg is forecasting moderate, single-digit growth for equities, as economic recovery was already more or less priced in with the very good year in 2019. Limited growth, low inflation, low…

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MARKETS | Monitor: Decreasing political uncertainty is fueling the stock markets

The market-friendly result of the UK’s election and the partial agreement of the trade dispute between China and the US have further boosted the stock market. In particular, UK mid-caps made strong gains and cyclical equities benefitted, as there were increasing signs of an economic recovery at the same time. Further, bond yields rose and weighed on safe havens such as government bonds, gold and REITs. There is a good chance that the positive mood in the stock market will continue for some time. Private investors have largely sold equities this year and are likely to invest more in equities…

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MARKETS | Monitor: Stock market has largely priced in an economic recovery

Stock markets have continued to rise despite ongoing mixed economic data and faltering trade negotiations between the US and China. Still, quite defensively positioned market participants buy shares after market setbacks in order to jump on the rally - thus feeding the rally. In addition, strong equity market performance is increasingly forcing hedge funds to reduce their short positions. A market-friendly outcome of the election in the UK (surveys point to an election victory for Boris Johnson) should lead to an orderly Brexit on 31/01/2020 and clear the way for a comprehensive fiscal…

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Dr Rupini Deepa Rajagopalan | Interview with Responsible Investor


“The Asset Manager Elite” – Berenberg takes first place for the eleventh time

Hamburg/Munich. For the eleventh time in a row, the Berenberg private bank has been named “Best Asset Manager” in the German-speaking countries in the Handelsblatt Asset Manager Elite report. The highest rating, “summa cum laude,” went to Germany’s oldest private bank for the 16th time.

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Berenberg wins overlay mandate for EUR 1.6 billion

Hamburg. Berenberg’s currency overlay team will actively manage the currency risks of the private markets portfolio of one of Germany’s biggest pension funds. This mandate with a volume of EUR 1.6 billion underscores Berenberg’s expertise in currency overlay management. In this segment, Germany’s oldest privately owned bank manages a total of EUR 7.6 billion and is one of the world’s biggest providers of active currency overlay management.

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MARKETS | Monitor: Good prospects for the stock rally to continue until the end of the year

Recently, the risk-on mood has continued, the S&P 500 has reached an all-time high, while gold has fallen as a safe haven. Oil rose markedly, driven by hopes of further production cuts from OPEC. Investor positioning is no longer as pessimistic as it was in September or October, but not yet euphoric. Investors shifted funds from US to European equities in particular. A warning signal, however, is the pronounced VIX net short positioning of speculators. If the volatility rises contrary to expectations, these investors would be forced to close their shorts, which would further increase the…

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BerenbergKids Foundation holds an anniversary – 10 years for a good cause

Hamburg. For some time now, the staff at Germany’s oldest private bank have been helping disadvantaged children. To provide a solid footing for the employees’ great commitment to this cause, in 2009 their activities were folded into the BerenbergKids Foundation that was established for that purpose. Since that time, the foundation has supported over 150 projects for children and youths, to the tune of over EUR 750,000. “We wanted to help disadvantaged children through BerenbergKids. This initiative comes from the heart and is sustained by the commitment of our employees. I am proud that in the…

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HWWI/Berenberg City Ranking: Berlin is the new leader – three cities in eastern Germany among the top ten

Hamburg/Frankfurt. The HWWI/Berenberg City Ranking has a new winner. Berlin leads the field of the 30 largest cities in Germany for the first time. That puts three East German cities into the Top 10, with Leipzig again coming second in overall ranking and Dresden climbing to seventh place. Bavarian state capital Munich is showing the first limits in its growth, losing some of its former dynamism to slip back to third place.

 

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MARKETS | Monitor: Is the outperformance of US equities coming to an end?

October was very positive. Risky asset classes performed significantly better than safer investments, which in many cases even lost value. Bond yields climbed and the yield curve steepened. Cyclicals such as the DAX were big winners. A decreasing political uncertainty, especially the breakthrough of the escalation spiral in the trade dispute between the USA and China and the decreasing probability of a hard Brexit met with a defensive positioning of many market participants. A betterthan-expected reporting season also helped. For the (cyclical) rally to continue however, economic data, which…

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Keynote speaker Dr Rajagopalan (Berenberg ESG Office) at the VCAF seminar


MARKETS| Monitor: Stoxx 600 - can a sustained breakout above the 400 mark be achieved?

Since October, stock markets have been experiencing a rollercoaster ride. Trade and economic concerns initially weighed on risk assets before the verbal agreement on a ceasefire in the trade war between the US and China which significantly improved investor sentiment. The markedly increased probability of a Brexit agreement further boosted investor sentiment. The DAX climbed to a YTD high and the S&P 500 is close to its all-time high. Will the broad European stock market now also be able to reach an all-time high? To do this, the Stoxx 600 would have to break through the 400 mark on a…

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